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First and foremost, let me say that when I try to be dispassionate and subjective, I see nothing but a win for BYU. There are a few factors I think I can see that make me believe it won’t be a blowout, and I will discuss those. But I think there is a very high probability on BYU winning (around 75%)
However, this blog, this show is not about being dispassionate. I consider myself a BYU fan, and I am a dedicated follower of the team. But I am the token Utah guy around here, and I still bleed Crimson when they take the field against each other.
That having been said, I would like to offer my take on the game to come in the form of a team vs. team comparison. I would welcome any spirited debate on the subject, provided the reader is aware he or she will be incorrect. With no further ado, the breakdown:
Offense
Quarterback
Edge to BYU. Beck is the Cougar star and the reason BYU has gone on a tear for the majority of the season. Conversely, Ratliff may be the reason why Utah lost a few of their games, particularly the Wyoming game, which was the ugliest loss of the year (not because of Wyoming, but because the offense sucked that bad). Ratliff plays well when properly motivated (he did share a Player of the Week honor this year, remember), but the coaching staff doesn’t seem to have figured out exactly what that motivation is.
Running Backs
A definite edge to BYU. Brown was not the 1,000 yard back they thought he would be, but the emergence of Vakapuna and Tonga gave BYU the most potent running attack they have had since Luke Staley quit early to collect an NFL paycheck. Darryl Poston has been okay, but most of Utah’s best running plays have come from Ratliff, Brent Casteel or Eric Weddle.
Receivers
Edge to Utah. Every BYU fan I know would swallow their tongue to hear me say that (Zach? Hello, Zach?), but it’s the under-used, under-valued part of Utah’s offense. I’m certainly not saying BYU’s receiving corps is bad; in fact they are a very talented bunch and there are a lot of options for Beck. But BYU’s most reliable receiving play has been Curtis Brown out of the backfield, followed by the tight end in the middle of the defensive zone (more on tight ends later). The leading Cougar receiver (Matt Allen) has 25 catches and 3 touchdowns on the year, compared to 45/6 for Derrek Richards or 33/7 for Brent Casteel. The numbers don’t exactly bear out because BYU’s offense is imaginative, varied and powerful, but if Utah had a quarterback with the ability of John Beck and the running game of Brown/Vakapuna/Tonga, this wouldn’t seem so outlandish.
Tight Ends
Big edge to BYU. In fact, this would probably be the biggest edge to any one team in any of these categories. Aside from John Beck, Johnny Harline would likely be BYU’s offensive MVP this year, with a lot of big catches in a lot of big games. Daniel Coats has not had the stellar career his first year or two seemed to promise, but he is an excellent option and performs very well when thrown to. In contrast, I’m not even sure who Utah’s starting tight end is, and I’m a fan of the team. (Actually, I’m pretty sure it’s Colt Sampson. At least he wins the award for Coolest Tight End Name in the rivalry matchup.)
Offensive Line
Even. Utah’s offensive line has allowed one fewer sack than BYU’s for the season (to this point, anyway), and that’s without much of a running game to keep the other team’s linebackers back a few steps. In addition, Utah’s line was supposed to be young and untested while BYU’s was supposed to be good this year; with the senior stud tackle (Jake Kuresa) and better experience at the guards. That having been said, there are reasons why the Cougars have had a great running attack this year, and a lot of the credit has to go to the line. The offensive line has been a team strength for both programs this year.
Defense
Defensive Line
Edge to Utah. This may be the category where Utah has the biggest advantage, although both teams have some great linemen. Utah’s Kelly Talavou and Paul Soliai are fantastic in the middle, and Martail Burnett and Soli Lefiti have been strong on the ends. BYU’s three man front has been great as well, but the defensive line has been the backbone of the Utah team.
Linebackers
Edge to BYU. I considered for a few moments calling this a draw, because Utah has plenty of strong players in the middle of their defense even though BYU’s defensive strength is in the linebacker corps. In the end, though, the combination of such players as Cameron Jensen (BYU’s defensive MVP, in my opinion), Bryan Kehl, David Nixon and Aaron Wagner are just too convincing. Utah has Joe Jiannoni – who is as good as any linebacker in this comparison – and a lot of young talent, but BYU has the definite edge here.
Defensive Backs
Edge to Utah. This might seem to be an obvious choice, as Utah has the all-everything backer in Eric Weddle, but BYU’s defensive backfield was much better than advertised this year. In fact, Quinn Gooch and Ben Criddle (among others) had excellent years for the Cougars, and compared very well to Eric Shyne, Casey Evans and the crew from Utah. However, Weddle does give Utah the edge, and like Cameron Jensen on BYU, can change a game from the defensive side of the ball.
Special Teams
Kicking
Edge to Utah. Louie Sakoda has won a few games for Utah, and BYU has lost a few games due to kicking errors. It’s pretty much that simple, although there are lots of contributing factors. Sakoda has been named the Mountain West Conference Special Teams Player of the Week three times this year, most recently when he made a winning 37 yard field goal against Air Force this last week.
Punting
Even. Sakoda punts very well for Utah, averaging 43.5 yards per, and he was directly responsible for Utah’s field position win over TCU this year. However, he has also punted 53 times this season. BYU averages fewer yards, 39.5 yards per punt, but they have also only done it 32 times. So, Utah is better at punting, but BYU is better at not having to punt, and that should amount for something.
To sum this up, Utah has a better defense overall, but BYU’s offense is dominating teams right now. If Utah’s offense can provide some support in the way of possession time and scoring, they might have a chance to give the Cougars a scare. I really don’t expect much of a game, but the rivalry has a way of equalizing things, and most of the games have been pretty close in recent years. The early odds makers have BYU as 10.5 point favorites, and that sounds about right to me. I know BYU fans think that sounds terribly low, but they are a little high on the sweet smell of success right now, and I can forgive them for that.
It’s a shame the best season start ever for the Utah Jazz has to take place during this week. The story is lost in the shuffle around here, but to sum up: Deron Williams is playing inspired basketball, Carlos Boozer is continuing his impressive beginning, and everyone on the team (with the possible exception of Rafael Araujo) is playing at a very high level right now. We will catch up with the best team in the NBA (right now, anyway) in upcoming weeks, but if you have not jumped on the Jazz Bandwagon, it’s a good time to do so right now.
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